Causation
How can we determine causation? i.e., one variable causes another to change
Shadish, Cook & Campbell (2002)
Drawing from John Stuart Mill’s philosophy
Three Criteria for Causal Relationships:
Temporal precedence (cause precedes effect)
Covariation (cause and effect are correlated)
Elimination of plausible alternative explanations (ruling out confounding variables)
Counterfactual Reasoning
Design
Random Assignment –> IV –> DV
Simple!
- What if we can’t randomly assign? What are things that we can’t randomly assign?
Quasi-experimental Design
- But that is next week. Stay on track and don’t get distracted
Random Assignment
Every participant has an equal likelihood of being in each of the groups
Coin Flip
Computer Algorithm
Will need to check for group differences on variables of interest and other meaningful characteristics.
- What statistical test would we use?
Randomized Control Trial (RCT)
We have a random sample ✅
We have random assignment ✅
But what are the groups that we are assigning?
- What is the research question, and what do we want to compare it against?
RCT
The comparison/control group means a lot when it comes to the conclusions that we can establish
Treatment vs. …
Waitlist Control?
Treatment as usual?
Other treatment?
Placebo?
Nothing?
Placebo Effect
This has been an emerging area of research that is utterly fascinating
On occasion, the placebo shows just as much of an effect as the actual treatment
Example: Treating Depression (link)